Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Kuraly wins 42.2% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kuraly 48.4% vs Stamkos 55.2% (-7.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 67.8%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 87.9%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 63.0%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 60.8%
60.8%
39.2%
Kuraly
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Kuraly
Stamkos
Last 8: Kuraly 3-5 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
3
Kuraly
Stamkos
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
3
0
Kuraly
Stamkos
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
2
Kuraly
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kuraly
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (445)
55.9% (499)
-6.5%
Power Play
100.0% (3)
56.3% (126)
+43.7%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (117)
58.3% (12)
-16.4%
On power play, Kuraly has a +43.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Kuraly is 42.2% vs right-shot opponents (211).
Kuraly shoots left. Stamkos is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (486).
Home / Away
Kuraly
Stamkos
Home
49.2% (248)
55.3% (349)
Away
47.3% (317)
56.9% (288)
By Period
Kuraly
Stamkos
P1
48.3%
57.0%
P2
44.7%
59.2%
P3
51.7%
51.5%
Final 5 min
41.7%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
48.1%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2024 | 2 | 13:17 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 2 | 07:13 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 12:30 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 3 | 06:19 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 3 | 06:13 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 18:26 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 13:10 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |