Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Stamkos wins 57.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stamkos 54.6% vs Hertl 57.2% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 58.3%
Defensive zone
Hertl 53.3%
Neutral zone
Hertl 56.1%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 54.7%
45.3%
54.7%
Stamkos
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Stamkos
Hertl
Last 9: Stamkos 5-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Stamkos
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
4
2
Stamkos
Hertl
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Stamkos
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stamkos
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (342)
58.1% (823)
-2.0%
Power Play
53.3% (92)
56.2% (265)
-2.9%
Penalty Kill
62.5% (8)
62.9% (35)
-0.4%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Stamkos is 57.2% vs left-shot opponents (325).
Stamkos shoots right. Hertl is 59.6% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Home / Away
Stamkos
Hertl
Home
53.4% (208)
59.7% (561)
Away
57.7% (234)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Stamkos
Hertl
P1
55.6%
51.6%
P2
52.8%
63.8%
P3
59.1%
58.6%
OT
62.5%
28.6%
Final 5 min
56.6%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.7%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 12:55 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 11:56 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 00:39 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 10:52 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 10:16 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 16:37 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 16:05 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 09:43 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 15:04 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |