Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Stamkos wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stamkos 53.4% vs Hertl 54.5% (-1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 70.7%
Defensive zone
Hertl 55.4%
Neutral zone
Hertl 59.2%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 63.7%
36.3%
63.7%
Stamkos
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Stamkos
Hertl
Last 6: Stamkos 4-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
2
1
Stamkos
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Stamkos
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
0
Stamkos
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stamkos
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (628)
54.1% (1,117)
+1.2%
Power Play
55.1% (216)
59.8% (296)
-4.7%
Penalty Kill
40.2% (87)
34.4% (32)
+5.8%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +5.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Stamkos is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (659).
Stamkos shoots right. Hertl is 61.2% vs right-shot opponents (562).
Home / Away
Stamkos
Hertl
Home
55.5% (499)
54.3% (709)
Away
51.9% (432)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Stamkos
Hertl
P1
50.7%
51.6%
P2
53.8%
53.6%
P3
55.9%
58.6%
OT
87.5%
45.5%
Final 5 min
56.2%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
53.8%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2023 | 2 | 05:58 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 2 | 05:46 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 3 | 19:27 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 3 | 19:03 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 3 | 04:29 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 29, 2022 | 2 | 18:09 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |