Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stamkos 50.9% vs Hertl 52.3% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 12-3 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 64.7%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 50.7%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 50.6%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 57.2%
57.2%
42.8%
Stamkos
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
12
(15 meetings)
3
12
Stamkos
Hertl
Last 10: Stamkos 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
6
Stamkos
Hertl
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
3
Stamkos
Hertl
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
3
Stamkos
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stamkos
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (789)
51.6% (1,084)
-2.3%
Power Play
56.9% (181)
61.0% (246)
-4.1%
Penalty Kill
54.1% (98)
44.1% (136)
+10.0%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Stamkos is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (798).
Stamkos shoots right. Hertl is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (526).
Home / Away
Stamkos
Hertl
Home
52.0% (512)
55.2% (696)
Away
50.2% (556)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Stamkos
Hertl
P1
42.1%
55.4%
P2
56.4%
54.8%
P3
53.7%
48.9%
OT
62.5%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.7%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2022 | OT | 02:06 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 3 | 09:06 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 2 | 18:24 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 2 | 11:58 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 1 | 18:46 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 1 | 10:58 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 3 | 11:16 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 3 | 07:24 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 2 | 16:31 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 2 | 10:50 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 2 | 08:39 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 1 | 18:50 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 1 | 10:40 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 1 | 06:46 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 1 | 03:17 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |