Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stamkos 49.9% vs Hertl 55.4% (-6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 77.0%
Defensive zone
Hertl 87.2%
Neutral zone
Hertl 81.1%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 80.2%
19.8%
80.2%
Stamkos
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Stamkos
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
3
0
Stamkos
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
0
Stamkos
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
2
1
Stamkos
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stamkos
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (670)
54.1% (717)
-4.8%
Power Play
53.7% (121)
61.9% (210)
-8.2%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (3)
58.1% (31)
-24.8%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +24.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Stamkos is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (610).
Stamkos shoots right. Hertl is 56.6% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Home / Away
Stamkos
Hertl
Home
54.0% (400)
58.1% (492)
Away
45.7% (394)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Stamkos
Hertl
P1
48.6%
57.1%
P2
54.5%
54.0%
P3
45.4%
56.6%
OT
100.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
46.9%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
49.9%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 15:20 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 10:35 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 1 | 11:59 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 1 | 09:12 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |