Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.3% vs 54.8%). Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Stamkos wins 53.4% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stamkos 53.8% vs Hertl 54.3% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 54.4%
Defensive zone
Hertl 52.1%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 54.7%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 52.6%
52.6%
47.4%
Stamkos
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Stamkos
Hertl
Last 7: Stamkos 2-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
4
Stamkos
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
2
0
Stamkos
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Stamkos
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stamkos
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
54.1% (460)
54.7% (570)
-0.6%
Power Play
64.2% (106)
55.2% (143)
+9.0%
Penalty Kill
45.3% (106)
54.5% (77)
-9.2%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +9.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Stamkos is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (506).
Stamkos shoots right. Hertl is 57.9% vs right-shot opponents (292).
Home / Away
Stamkos
Hertl
Home
58.2% (328)
56.2% (379)
Away
50.6% (344)
53.5% (411)
By Period
Stamkos
Hertl
P1
57.5%
53.4%
P2
53.1%
52.7%
P3
52.7%
57.6%
OT
60.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
55.4%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
54.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2019 | 3 | 16:18 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2019 | 2 | 10:27 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2019 | 2 | 10:11 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2019 | 2 | 06:47 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 7, 2019 | 2 | 00:47 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2019 | 1 | 11:06 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2019 | 1 | 00:15 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |