Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +15.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Jost on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Stamkos wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Jost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stamkos 53.4% vs Jost 40.8% (+15.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jost 81.1%
Defensive zone
Jost 82.6%
Neutral zone
Jost 88.7%
Result
Tyson Jost favored at 83.8%
16.2%
83.8%
Stamkos
Jost
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
Stamkos
Jost
Last 5: Stamkos 0-5 Jost
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jost
0
4
Stamkos
Jost
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Jost
0
1
Stamkos
Jost
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stamkos
Jost
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (628)
41.8% (388)
+13.5%
Power Play
55.1% (216)
0.0% (3)
+55.1%
Penalty Kill
40.2% (87)
21.7% (60)
+18.5%
On power play, Stamkos has a +55.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jost shoots left. Stamkos is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (659).
Stamkos shoots right. Jost is 39.3% vs right-shot opponents (168).
Home / Away
Stamkos
Jost
Home
55.5% (499)
42.6% (230)
Away
51.9% (432)
34.8% (221)
By Period
Stamkos
Jost
P1
50.7%
43.2%
P2
53.8%
38.2%
P3
55.9%
34.6%
OT
87.5%
0.0%
Final 5 min
56.2%
40.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
53.8%
Jost
38.0%▼
41.5%
38.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2023 | 2 | 12:17 | Defensive | Tyson Jost |
| Feb 23, 2023 | 1 | 11:24 | Neutral | Tyson Jost |
| Nov 28, 2022 | 3 | 18:23 | Defensive | Tyson Jost |
| Nov 28, 2022 | 3 | 12:07 | Defensive | Tyson Jost |
| Nov 28, 2022 | 2 | 14:58 | Defensive | Tyson Jost |