Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Copp 53.5% vs Hertl 57.1% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Copp 65.6%
Defensive zone
Copp 85.7%
Neutral zone
Copp 71.8%
Result
Andrew Copp favored at 75.1%
75.1%
24.9%
Copp
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Copp
Hertl
Last 7: Copp 1-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
3
Copp
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Copp
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Copp
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Copp
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
54.3% (693)
58.0% (816)
-3.7%
Power Play
57.4% (68)
56.5% (260)
+0.9%
Penalty Kill
45.6% (57)
62.9% (35)
-17.3%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +17.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Copp is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (493).
Copp shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (689).
Home / Away
Copp
Hertl
Home
54.4% (408)
59.7% (561)
Away
53.4% (410)
55.8% (550)
By Period
Copp
Hertl
P1
53.3%
51.4%
P2
54.1%
64.1%
P3
54.9%
58.5%
OT
20.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
60.8%
58.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Copp
44.0%▼
52.5%
53.9%
Hertl
54.0%▼
58.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2026 | 3 | 13:19 | Defensive | Andrew Copp |
| Mar 4, 2026 | 3 | 13:06 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 4, 2026 | 3 | 09:04 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 4, 2026 | 2 | 15:39 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 4, 2026 | 1 | 16:51 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 4, 2026 | 1 | 16:14 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 06:40 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |