Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Ryan wins 61.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 57.4% vs Hertl 55.4% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 79.5%
Defensive zone
Ryan 77.9%
Neutral zone
Hertl 50.8%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 53.4%
46.6%
53.4%
Ryan
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Ryan
Hertl
Last 10: Ryan 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
5
Ryan
Hertl
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
4
1
Ryan
Hertl
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
61.4% (220)
54.1% (717)
+7.3%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
61.9% (210)
+38.1%
Penalty Kill
51.7% (29)
58.1% (31)
-6.4%
On power play, Ryan has a +38.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Ryan is 61.3% vs left-shot opponents (194).
Ryan shoots right. Hertl is 56.6% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Home / Away
Ryan
Hertl
Home
64.2% (137)
58.1% (492)
Away
55.8% (113)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Ryan
Hertl
P1
58.9%
57.1%
P2
62.8%
54.0%
P3
59.3%
56.6%
Final 5 min
51.6%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
60.4%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 18:43 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 2 | 18:01 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 08:14 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 2 | 03:30 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 1 | 02:00 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 3 | 16:46 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 3 | 08:32 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 3 | 02:35 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 2 | 13:10 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 2 | 10:58 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 1 | 02:15 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |