Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Cozens wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 52.9% vs Hertl 57.1% (-4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cozens 67.3%
Defensive zone
Cozens 71.8%
Neutral zone
Cozens 68.3%
Result
Dylan Cozens favored at 68.6%
68.6%
31.4%
Cozens
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Cozens
Hertl
Last 9: Cozens 2-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
4
Cozens
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Cozens
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Cozens
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (606)
58.0% (816)
-5.4%
Power Play
58.5% (94)
56.5% (260)
+2.0%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
62.9% (35)
-29.6%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +29.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Cozens is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (534).
Cozens shoots right. Hertl is 59.5% vs right-shot opponents (422).
Home / Away
Cozens
Hertl
Home
54.1% (375)
59.7% (561)
Away
52.3% (331)
55.8% (550)
By Period
Cozens
Hertl
P1
55.8%
51.4%
P2
50.6%
64.1%
P3
53.7%
58.5%
OT
40.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
50.7%
58.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
53.3%
Hertl
54.0%▼
58.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | 3 | 14:52 | Defensive | Dylan Cozens |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 2 | 14:41 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 2 | 14:25 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 2 | 12:23 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 10:20 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 15:30 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 14:50 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 10:10 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 06:39 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |