Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuznetsov on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Kuznetsov wins 43.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kuznetsov 44.7% vs Hertl 50.7% (-6.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 62.3%
Defensive zone
Hertl 84.1%
Neutral zone
Hertl 76.9%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 70.5%
29.5%
70.5%
Kuznetsov
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Kuznetsov
Hertl
Last 8: Kuznetsov 5-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kuznetsov
4
0
Kuznetsov
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Kuznetsov
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Kuznetsov
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kuznetsov
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
44.4% (980)
51.5% (891)
-7.1%
Power Play
38.7% (31)
54.8% (135)
-16.1%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
41.5% (130)
+1.4%
On power play, Hertl has a +16.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Kuznetsov is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (673).
Kuznetsov shoots left. Hertl is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (715).
Home / Away
Kuznetsov
Hertl
Home
46.4% (491)
52.6% (544)
Away
42.1% (527)
49.2% (612)
By Period
Kuznetsov
Hertl
P1
44.8%
49.4%
P2
44.6%
51.7%
P3
44.0%
51.4%
OT
23.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
46.3%
53.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kuznetsov
46.0%▲
44.0%
44.2%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2018 | 2 | 04:02 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 10, 2018 | 1 | 14:34 | Offensive | Evgeny Kuznetsov |
| Mar 10, 2018 | 1 | 14:27 | Offensive | Evgeny Kuznetsov |
| Mar 10, 2018 | 1 | 00:10 | Offensive | Evgeny Kuznetsov |
| Mar 10, 2018 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 4, 2017 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Evgeny Kuznetsov |
| Dec 4, 2017 | 1 | 14:36 | Offensive | Evgeny Kuznetsov |
| Dec 4, 2017 | 1 | 07:19 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |