Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (58.6% vs 57.8%). Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Drury wins 55.5% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Drury 57.7% vs Hertl 57.2% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 86.0%
Defensive zone
Drury 67.4%
Neutral zone
Hertl 53.1%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 72.8%
27.2%
72.8%
Drury
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Drury
Hertl
Last 9: Drury 2-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
6
Drury
Hertl
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Drury
1
0
Drury
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Drury
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Drury
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
61.2% (667)
58.1% (823)
+3.1%
Power Play
40.0% (10)
56.2% (265)
-16.2%
Penalty Kill
49.0% (157)
62.9% (35)
-13.9%
On power play, Hertl has a +16.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Drury is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (515).
Drury shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Drury
Hertl
Home
59.2% (407)
59.7% (561)
Away
58.1% (427)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Drury
Hertl
P1
59.0%
51.6%
P2
57.7%
63.8%
P3
59.1%
58.6%
OT
60.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
50.7%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Drury
64.0%▲
56.0%
58.6%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 18:03 | Neutral | Jack Drury |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 06:19 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 11:06 | Defensive | Jack Drury |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 02:39 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 09:23 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 01:26 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 02:24 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 01:47 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 17:28 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |