Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (58.5% vs 57.8%). Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Drury wins 55.4% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Drury 57.6% vs Hertl 57.1% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 85.0%
Defensive zone
Drury 71.1%
Neutral zone
Hertl 51.9%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 71.4%
28.6%
71.4%
Drury
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Drury
Hertl
Last 9: Drury 2-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
6
Drury
Hertl
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Drury
1
0
Drury
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Drury
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Drury
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
60.8% (659)
58.0% (816)
+2.8%
Power Play
40.0% (10)
56.5% (260)
-16.5%
Penalty Kill
49.7% (155)
62.9% (35)
-13.2%
On power play, Hertl has a +16.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Drury is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (507).
Drury shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (689).
Home / Away
Drury
Hertl
Home
59.2% (407)
59.7% (561)
Away
57.8% (417)
55.8% (550)
By Period
Drury
Hertl
P1
59.1%
51.4%
P2
57.6%
64.1%
P3
58.8%
58.5%
OT
60.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
50.7%
58.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Drury
62.0%▲
55.5%
58.5%
Hertl
54.0%▼
58.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 18:03 | Neutral | Jack Drury |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 06:19 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 11:06 | Defensive | Jack Drury |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 02:39 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 09:23 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 01:26 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 02:24 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 2 | 01:47 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 17:28 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |