Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings). Evans wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.4% vs Hertl 57.1% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 11-4 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 73.7%
Defensive zone
Evans 88.9%
Neutral zone
Evans 58.8%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 56.7%
43.3%
56.7%
Evans
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
11
(15 meetings)
4
11
Evans
Hertl
Last 10: Evans 2-8 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
8
Evans
Hertl
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
2
0
Evans
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Evans
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (477)
58.0% (816)
-1.8%
Power Play
70.0% (10)
56.5% (260)
+13.5%
Penalty Kill
55.4% (204)
62.9% (35)
-7.5%
On power play, Evans has a +13.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Evans is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (516).
Evans shoots right. Hertl is 59.5% vs right-shot opponents (422).
Home / Away
Evans
Hertl
Home
55.3% (374)
59.7% (561)
Away
57.1% (317)
55.8% (550)
By Period
Evans
Hertl
P1
58.5%
51.4%
P2
55.7%
64.1%
P3
53.9%
58.5%
OT
66.7%
28.6%
Final 5 min
54.3%
58.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
56.2%
Hertl
54.0%▼
58.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 16:52 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 01:37 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 19:18 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 16:34 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 13:55 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 06:01 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 16:51 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 09:18 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 15:33 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 08:55 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 15:19 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 08:45 | Defensive | Jake Evans |