Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.0% vs Hertl 56.8% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 52.5%
Defensive zone
Evans 86.0%
Neutral zone
Evans 62.2%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 57.2%
57.2%
42.8%
Evans
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Evans
Hertl
Last 7: Evans 1-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
4
Evans
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Evans
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (807)
57.0% (718)
-2.6%
Power Play
55.0% (20)
64.9% (188)
-9.9%
Penalty Kill
46.1% (310)
44.2% (77)
+1.9%
On power play, Hertl has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Evans is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (855).
Evans shoots right. Hertl is 62.5% vs right-shot opponents (352).
Home / Away
Evans
Hertl
Home
53.7% (581)
59.2% (463)
Away
50.5% (556)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Evans
Hertl
P1
54.6%
56.3%
P2
50.0%
55.4%
P3
52.3%
60.5%
OT
46.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.6%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.2%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2024 | 3 | 08:46 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 2 | 18:18 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 2 | 05:02 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 2 | 00:36 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 1 | 17:25 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 2 | 12:26 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 1 | 16:29 | Defensive | Jake Evans |