Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Carter wins 56.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carter 56.4% vs Hertl 52.3% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 69.6%
Defensive zone
Hertl 74.3%
Neutral zone
Hertl 70.3%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 72.6%
27.4%
72.6%
Carter
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
Carter
Hertl
Last 5: Carter 0-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Carter
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
3
Carter
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Carter
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carter
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
57.9% (885)
51.6% (1,084)
+6.3%
Power Play
61.7% (133)
61.0% (246)
+0.7%
Penalty Kill
45.4% (119)
44.1% (136)
+1.3%
On even strength, Carter has a +6.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Carter is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (780).
Carter shoots right. Hertl is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (526).
Home / Away
Carter
Hertl
Home
58.2% (543)
55.2% (696)
Away
55.9% (594)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Carter
Hertl
P1
57.5%
55.4%
P2
57.1%
54.8%
P3
55.8%
48.9%
OT
68.2%
33.3%
Final 5 min
57.0%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
57.0%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2022 | 3 | 14:36 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 3 | 08:42 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 3 | 08:33 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 1 | 03:47 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 1 | 00:55 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |