Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 10 meetings). Stenlund wins 53.7% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 52.7% vs Hertl 54.5% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 12-3 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 72.5%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 87.7%
Neutral zone
Stenlund 59.9%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 58.0%
42.0%
58.0%
Stenlund
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
12
(15 meetings)
3
12
Stenlund
Hertl
Last 10: Stenlund 2-8 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
10
Stenlund
Hertl
10 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Stenlund
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stenlund
2
1
Stenlund
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
58.2% (359)
54.1% (1,117)
+4.1%
Power Play
47.1% (17)
59.8% (296)
-12.7%
Penalty Kill
42.0% (150)
34.4% (32)
+7.6%
On power play, Hertl has a +12.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Stenlund is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (402).
Stenlund shoots right. Hertl is 61.2% vs right-shot opponents (562).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Hertl
Home
53.6% (261)
54.3% (709)
Away
52.8% (265)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Stenlund
Hertl
P1
55.4%
51.6%
P2
51.5%
53.6%
P3
52.9%
58.6%
Final 5 min
52.0%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
53.2%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2023 | 3 | 08:49 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 3 | 05:48 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 3 | 03:17 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 2 | 12:59 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 10, 2023 | 1 | 17:22 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 3 | 19:38 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 3 | 16:39 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 3 | 16:29 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 2 | 09:49 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 1 | 07:48 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 6, 2023 | 3 | 14:53 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 6, 2023 | 2 | 11:54 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 6, 2023 | 2 | 07:23 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 6, 2023 | 2 | 00:44 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 6, 2023 | 1 | 17:08 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |