Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +22.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Carlsson wins 35.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 37.1% vs Hertl 56.8% (-22.7%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 6-6 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 63.1%
Defensive zone
Hertl 66.2%
Neutral zone
Hertl 62.6%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 63.8%
36.2%
63.8%
Carlsson
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
6
(12 meetings)
6
6
Carlsson
Hertl
Last 10: Carlsson 5-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Carlsson
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carlsson
5
3
Carlsson
Hertl
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
34.4% (535)
57.0% (718)
-22.6%
Power Play
42.9% (21)
64.9% (188)
-22.0%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (5)
44.2% (77)
-4.2%
On even strength, Hertl has a +22.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Carlsson is 35.3% vs left-shot opponents (394).
Carlsson shoots left. Hertl is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Hertl
Home
38.6% (254)
59.2% (463)
Away
31.6% (307)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Carlsson
Hertl
P1
35.9%
56.3%
P2
33.8%
55.4%
P3
34.3%
60.5%
OT
44.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
36.8%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
34.8%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2024 | 2 | 18:47 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Apr 18, 2024 | 2 | 05:20 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 18, 2024 | 1 | 10:00 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 18, 2024 | 1 | 02:35 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 2 | 19:56 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 2 | 19:32 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 2 | 15:21 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 2 | 15:06 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 12, 2023 | 3 | 05:41 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 12, 2023 | 3 | 05:32 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 12, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 12, 2023 | 1 | 09:21 | Defensive | Leo Carlsson |