Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for McTavish on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McTavish 51.5% vs Hertl 56.8% (-5.8%)
H2H factor
McTavish leads 10-3 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 82.2%
Defensive zone
Hertl 93.2%
Neutral zone
Hertl 75.2%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 80.6%
19.4%
80.6%
McTavish
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
3
(13 meetings)
10
3
McTavish
Hertl
Last 10: McTavish 7-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McTavish
4
1
McTavish
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McTavish
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McTavish
5
1
McTavish
Hertl
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McTavish
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (725)
57.0% (718)
-5.7%
Power Play
55.8% (113)
64.9% (188)
-9.1%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (7)
44.2% (77)
-15.6%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. McTavish is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (580).
McTavish shoots left. Hertl is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
McTavish
Hertl
Home
52.0% (454)
59.2% (463)
Away
51.4% (391)
56.0% (520)
By Period
McTavish
Hertl
P1
51.3%
56.3%
P2
50.4%
55.4%
P3
53.3%
60.5%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
55.7%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
51.7%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 15:54 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 12:30 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 12:24 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 12:04 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 06:53 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 2 | 17:33 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 2 | 10:13 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 2 | 00:14 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 12, 2023 | 2 | 15:47 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 12, 2023 | 2 | 15:20 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |