Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 10 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 50.8% vs Hertl 54.5% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 15-3 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Backlund 65.9%
Defensive zone
Backlund 86.6%
Neutral zone
Backlund 74.8%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 73.8%
73.8%
26.2%
Backlund
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
15
(18 meetings)
3
15
Backlund
Hertl
Last 10: Backlund 2-8 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
10
Backlund
Hertl
10 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Backlund
Hertl
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Backlund
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.9% (1,083)
54.1% (1,117)
-2.2%
Power Play
51.7% (120)
59.8% (296)
-8.1%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (183)
34.4% (32)
+9.9%
On penalty kill, Backlund has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Backlund is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (824).
Backlund shoots left. Hertl is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (883).
Home / Away
Backlund
Hertl
Home
51.9% (673)
54.3% (709)
Away
49.9% (713)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Backlund
Hertl
P1
51.4%
51.6%
P2
50.5%
53.6%
P3
51.4%
58.6%
OT
35.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
50.2%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
50.9%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2023 | 3 | 18:21 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 12, 2023 | 3 | 14:52 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 12, 2023 | 3 | 11:41 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 12, 2023 | 3 | 00:24 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Apr 12, 2023 | 2 | 16:23 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 12, 2023 | 2 | 03:55 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 12, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 12, 2023 | 1 | 19:25 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 3 | 13:36 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 3 | 10:36 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 2 | 08:39 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 2 | 08:32 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 2 | 06:06 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 18, 2022 | 3 | 02:10 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 18, 2022 | 2 | 15:44 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 18, 2022 | 2 | 08:18 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 18, 2022 | 1 | 10:58 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 18, 2022 | 1 | 08:37 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |