Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +10.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (77% H2H, 13 meetings). Sundqvist wins 44.1% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sundqvist 44.3% vs Hertl 54.2% (-10.1%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 20-10 in 30 meetings
Offensive zone
Sundqvist 77.9%
Defensive zone
Sundqvist 89.5%
Neutral zone
Sundqvist 89.5%
Result
Oskar Sundqvist favored at 84.4%
84.4%
15.6%
Sundqvist
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
20
(30 meetings)
10
20
Sundqvist
Hertl
Last 10: Sundqvist 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
3
10
Sundqvist
Hertl
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
6
7
Sundqvist
Hertl
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Sundqvist
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sundqvist
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (2,842)
53.8% (8,268)
-9.6%
Power Play
51.0% (98)
59.3% (1,975)
-8.3%
Penalty Kill
41.6% (385)
46.3% (806)
-4.7%
On even strength, Hertl has a +9.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Sundqvist is 44.1% vs left-shot opponents (2,379).
Sundqvist shoots right. Hertl is 56.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,133).
Home / Away
Sundqvist
Hertl
Home
44.2% (1,584)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
44.0% (1,741)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Sundqvist
Hertl
P1
42.8%
53.6%
P2
45.6%
54.1%
P3
43.7%
55.3%
OT
60.0%
46.5%
Final 5 min
45.2%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sundqvist
44.0%▼
49.5%
44.1%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2026 | 3 | 18:27 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 3 | 07:36 | Neutral | Oskar Sundqvist |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 1 | 10:28 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 14:22 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 07:45 | Defensive | Oskar Sundqvist |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 07:31 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 13:30 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 2 | 07:02 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 2 | 06:49 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 2 | 09:06 | Defensive | Oskar Sundqvist |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 2 | 08:56 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 18, 2021 | 1 | 16:15 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 18, 2021 | 1 | 16:02 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 3 | 17:00 | Offensive | Oskar Sundqvist |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 3 | 01:41 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 3 | 01:32 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 2 | 09:06 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 2 | 09:01 | Defensive | Oskar Sundqvist |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 1 | 15:18 | Offensive | Oskar Sundqvist |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 1 | 12:48 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |