Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Fabbri wins 59.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fabbri 49.8% vs Hertl 52.3% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fabbri 61.6%
Defensive zone
Hertl 58.5%
Neutral zone
Fabbri 55.4%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 54.4%
45.6%
54.4%
Fabbri
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Fabbri
Hertl
Last 5: Fabbri 2-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fabbri
1
0
Fabbri
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Fabbri
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fabbri
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (89)
51.6% (1,084)
-2.2%
Power Play
50.0% (20)
61.0% (246)
-11.0%
On power play, Hertl has a +11.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Fabbri is 59.2% vs left-shot opponents (71).
Fabbri shoots left. Hertl is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (940).
Home / Away
Fabbri
Hertl
Home
50.0% (50)
55.2% (696)
Away
49.2% (59)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Fabbri
Hertl
P1
51.9%
55.4%
P2
51.2%
54.8%
P3
51.5%
48.9%
OT
16.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
37.5%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fabbri
44.0%▼
51.0%
49.5%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2022 | 2 | 17:39 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 11, 2022 | 2 | 05:31 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 11, 2022 | 1 | 18:35 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 11, 2022 | 1 | 15:16 | Defensive | Robby Fabbri |
| Jan 11, 2022 | 1 | 08:23 | Offensive | Robby Fabbri |