Scouting Report
Ryan Carpenter holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Carpenter on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Carpenter wins 53.1% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carpenter 52.0% vs Hertl 51.4% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Carpenter leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 61.6%
Defensive zone
Hertl 60.1%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 54.3%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 55.9%
44.1%
55.9%
Carpenter
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
5
(12 meetings)
7
5
Carpenter
Hertl
Last 10: Carpenter 6-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
3
Carpenter
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
3
0
Carpenter
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Carpenter
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carpenter
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (267)
51.7% (869)
+1.9%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
55.7% (176)
-27.1%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (32)
44.9% (138)
+5.1%
On power play, Hertl has a +27.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Carpenter is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (224).
Carpenter shoots right. Hertl is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (480).
Home / Away
Carpenter
Hertl
Home
47.6% (145)
51.8% (583)
Away
57.1% (161)
51.2% (600)
By Period
Carpenter
Hertl
P1
51.7%
52.5%
P2
47.6%
50.9%
P3
57.4%
51.0%
Final 5 min
50.7%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
52.6%
Hertl
58.0%▬
58.5%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2019 | 3 | 04:00 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Mar 30, 2019 | 2 | 18:48 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 10, 2019 | 3 | 13:39 | Offensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Jan 10, 2019 | 3 | 13:34 | Offensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Jan 10, 2019 | 2 | 13:46 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 24, 2018 | 3 | 07:38 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 24, 2018 | 3 | 07:14 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 24, 2018 | 2 | 16:34 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 24, 2018 | 2 | 08:10 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 24, 2018 | 1 | 19:09 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 24, 2018 | 1 | 13:54 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 24, 2018 | 1 | 06:56 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |