Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +11.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Carpenter on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Carpenter wins 41.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carpenter 44.1% vs Hertl 54.3% (-11.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 94.1%
Defensive zone
Hertl 65.6%
Neutral zone
Hertl 76.6%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 78.2%
21.8%
78.2%
Carpenter
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Carpenter
Hertl
Last 8: Carpenter 5-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Carpenter
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
2
0
Carpenter
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carpenter
3
1
Carpenter
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carpenter
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (474)
54.7% (570)
-8.5%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
55.2% (143)
-26.6%
Penalty Kill
32.6% (129)
54.5% (77)
-21.9%
On power play, Hertl has a +26.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Carpenter is 41.3% vs left-shot opponents (467).
Carpenter shoots right. Hertl is 57.9% vs right-shot opponents (292).
Home / Away
Carpenter
Hertl
Home
46.5% (303)
56.2% (379)
Away
39.7% (307)
53.5% (411)
By Period
Carpenter
Hertl
P1
44.2%
53.4%
P2
40.4%
52.7%
P3
44.2%
57.6%
OT
57.1%
66.7%
Final 5 min
48.3%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
43.1%
Hertl
58.0%▬
58.5%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2019 | 3 | 13:24 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 5, 2019 | 1 | 17:52 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 10, 2019 | 3 | 04:53 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Oct 10, 2019 | 3 | 04:47 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Oct 10, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Oct 10, 2019 | 2 | 19:21 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 10, 2019 | 1 | 06:09 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Oct 10, 2019 | 1 | 03:06 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |