Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McLeod 48.4% vs Hertl 54.5% (-6.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 89.7%
Defensive zone
Hertl 62.5%
Neutral zone
Hertl 69.6%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 66.8%
33.2%
66.8%
McLeod
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
McLeod
Hertl
Last 5: McLeod 4-1 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McLeod
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McLeod
3
0
McLeod
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McLeod
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (500)
54.1% (1,117)
-5.1%
Power Play
43.8% (48)
59.8% (296)
-16.0%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (50)
34.4% (32)
+9.6%
On power play, Hertl has a +16.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. McLeod is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (370).
McLeod shoots left. Hertl is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (883).
Home / Away
McLeod
Hertl
Home
50.9% (291)
54.3% (709)
Away
45.6% (307)
55.3% (736)
By Period
McLeod
Hertl
P1
44.3%
51.6%
P2
52.4%
53.6%
P3
47.8%
58.6%
OT
0.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
48.2%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
48.2%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2023 | 1 | 06:56 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 13, 2023 | 3 | 06:39 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 13, 2023 | 3 | 03:53 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 13, 2023 | 1 | 19:19 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 13, 2023 | 1 | 10:59 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |