Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McLeod 50.7% vs Hertl 56.8% (-6.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McLeod 67.2%
Defensive zone
McLeod 69.0%
Neutral zone
McLeod 67.2%
Result
Ryan McLeod favored at 67.7%
67.7%
32.3%
McLeod
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
McLeod
Hertl
Last 7: McLeod 2-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
McLeod
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
McLeod
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
McLeod
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McLeod
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (628)
57.0% (718)
-5.7%
Power Play
68.3% (41)
64.9% (188)
+3.4%
Penalty Kill
30.6% (49)
44.2% (77)
-13.6%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +13.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. McLeod is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (507).
McLeod shoots left. Hertl is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
McLeod
Hertl
Home
51.5% (394)
59.2% (463)
Away
50.0% (324)
56.0% (520)
By Period
McLeod
Hertl
P1
51.5%
56.3%
P2
47.0%
55.4%
P3
54.3%
60.5%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.7%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McLeod
52.0%▬
51.5%
50.8%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2024 | 3 | 07:05 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Apr 10, 2024 | 3 | 06:50 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Apr 10, 2024 | 1 | 11:50 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 10, 2024 | 1 | 08:36 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 3 | 16:36 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 3 | 11:24 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 2 | 16:11 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |