Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Stamkos wins 57.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stamkos 55.2% vs Hertl 56.8% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 65.5%
Defensive zone
Hertl 54.3%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 61.1%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 57.6%
57.6%
42.4%
Stamkos
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Stamkos
Hertl
Last 5: Stamkos 1-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
3
Stamkos
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Stamkos
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stamkos
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (499)
57.0% (718)
-1.1%
Power Play
56.3% (126)
64.9% (188)
-8.6%
Penalty Kill
58.3% (12)
44.2% (77)
+14.1%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +14.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Stamkos is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (486).
Stamkos shoots right. Hertl is 62.5% vs right-shot opponents (352).
Home / Away
Stamkos
Hertl
Home
55.3% (349)
59.2% (463)
Away
56.9% (288)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Stamkos
Hertl
P1
57.0%
56.3%
P2
59.2%
55.4%
P3
51.5%
60.5%
OT
55.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.7%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2023 | 3 | 13:20 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 1 | 15:26 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 1 | 07:22 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 1 | 07:03 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 1 | 02:26 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |