Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Kastelic on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Kastelic wins 56.5% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kastelic 53.5% vs Nosek 51.4% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kastelic 70.8%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 68.4%
Neutral zone
Kastelic 63.2%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 69.4%
69.4%
30.6%
Kastelic
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Kastelic
Nosek
Last 7: Kastelic 5-2 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
2
1
Kastelic
Nosek
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
3
1
Kastelic
Nosek
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kastelic
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (337)
54.4% (215)
-1.0%
Power Play
100.0% (4)
0.0% (1)
+100.0%
Penalty Kill
75.0% (8)
23.5% (17)
+51.5%
On power play, Kastelic has a +100.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Kastelic is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (246).
Kastelic shoots right. Nosek is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (79).
Home / Away
Kastelic
Nosek
Home
56.2% (162)
50.4% (127)
Away
52.9% (187)
53.8% (106)
By Period
Kastelic
Nosek
P1
58.2%
51.4%
P2
58.8%
51.3%
P3
45.4%
53.2%
Final 5 min
59.5%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
54.4%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 15:27 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 07:01 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 04:19 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 18:38 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 18:31 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 02:39 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 1 | 12:22 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |