Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +11.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Carrick wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carrick 53.0% vs Novak 43.5% (+11.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 94.3%
Defensive zone
Novak 58.4%
Neutral zone
Novak 82.8%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 87.5%
12.5%
87.5%
Carrick
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Carrick
Novak
Last 7: Carrick 1-6 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
5
Carrick
Novak
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Carrick
Novak
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
0
Carrick
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carrick
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (521)
40.7% (460)
+13.2%
Power Play
57.1% (35)
61.5% (39)
-4.4%
Penalty Kill
51.5% (229)
0.0% (1)
+51.5%
On penalty kill, Carrick has a +51.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Carrick is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (562).
Carrick shoots right. Novak is 41.9% vs right-shot opponents (160).
Home / Away
Carrick
Novak
Home
52.7% (408)
47.0% (236)
Away
54.1% (377)
37.9% (264)
By Period
Carrick
Novak
P1
51.4%
43.1%
P2
56.6%
43.1%
P3
52.1%
40.1%
Final 5 min
57.7%
38.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
53.4%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2024 | 2 | 14:54 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Feb 25, 2024 | 1 | 17:17 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 2 | 13:12 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 2 | 09:54 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 2 | 09:48 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 1 | 09:04 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 1 | 05:21 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |