Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +14.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Seguin on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 9 meetings). Novak wins 41.9% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Novak 43.5% vs Seguin 55.4% (-14.1%)
H2H factor
Seguin leads 9-1 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Novak 90.9%
Defensive zone
Novak 81.5%
Neutral zone
Novak 89.7%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 82.3%
82.3%
17.7%
Novak
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
9
(10 meetings)
1
9
Novak
Seguin
Last 10: Novak 1-9 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
0
9
Novak
Seguin
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
1
0
Novak
Seguin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Novak
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
40.7% (460)
56.9% (478)
-16.2%
Power Play
61.5% (39)
57.4% (54)
+4.1%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
51.3% (76)
-51.3%
On penalty kill, Seguin has a +51.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Novak is 41.9% vs right-shot opponents (160).
Novak shoots left. Seguin is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (473).
Home / Away
Novak
Seguin
Home
47.0% (236)
57.4% (317)
Away
37.9% (264)
55.0% (291)
By Period
Novak
Seguin
P1
43.1%
50.3%
P2
43.1%
60.4%
P3
40.1%
58.0%
Final 5 min
38.6%
57.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.2%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2024 | 2 | 16:30 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Jan 12, 2024 | 2 | 19:54 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Jan 12, 2024 | 2 | 11:21 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 12, 2024 | 2 | 02:03 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Jan 12, 2024 | 2 | 01:51 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 01:38 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 2 | 12:11 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 2 | 12:03 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 1 | 17:50 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 1 | 06:35 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |