Scouting Report
Vincent Trocheck holds a +14.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Novak wins 42.1% vs right-shot opponents — Trocheck shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Novak 43.4% vs Trocheck 56.0% (-14.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 77.9%
Defensive zone
Trocheck 54.3%
Neutral zone
Novak 70.4%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 63.9%
63.9%
36.1%
Novak
Trocheck
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Novak
Trocheck
Last 8: Novak 3-5 Trocheck
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
3
0
Novak
Trocheck
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Trocheck
0
3
Novak
Trocheck
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Trocheck
0
2
Novak
Trocheck
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Novak
Trocheck
Edge
Even Strength
41.4% (379)
57.8% (626)
-16.4%
Power Play
46.9% (32)
63.6% (151)
-16.7%
On power play, Trocheck has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Trocheck shoots right. Novak is 42.1% vs right-shot opponents (140).
Novak shoots left. Trocheck is 57.3% vs left-shot opponents (627).
Home / Away
Novak
Trocheck
Home
42.6% (195)
54.4% (390)
Away
41.2% (216)
58.3% (528)
By Period
Novak
Trocheck
P1
42.4%
56.4%
P2
39.2%
58.7%
P3
44.7%
54.8%
OT
33.3%
57.1%
Final 5 min
40.4%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
41.8%
Trocheck
60.0%▲
57.0%
56.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 03:54 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Vincent Trocheck |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 17:14 | Defensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 15:08 | Defensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Vincent Trocheck |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 13:07 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 15:55 | Defensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 19:14 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |