Scouting Report
Tommy Novak holds a +10.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Novak wins 42.4% vs left-shot opponents — Eklund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Novak 43.5% vs Eklund 37.0% (+10.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 72.7%
Defensive zone
Novak 56.1%
Neutral zone
Novak 58.6%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 66.5%
66.5%
33.5%
Novak
Eklund
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Novak
Eklund
Last 5: Novak 3-2 Eklund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
3
0
Novak
Eklund
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eklund
0
1
Novak
Eklund
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Eklund
0
1
Novak
Eklund
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Novak
Eklund
Edge
Even Strength
40.7% (460)
30.8% (208)
+9.9%
Power Play
61.5% (39)
47.1% (17)
+14.4%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
0.0% (5)
+0.0%
On power play, Novak has a +14.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eklund shoots left. Novak is 42.4% vs left-shot opponents (340).
Novak shoots left. Eklund is 29.4% vs left-shot opponents (143).
Home / Away
Novak
Eklund
Home
47.0% (236)
31.2% (125)
Away
37.9% (264)
31.4% (105)
By Period
Novak
Eklund
P1
43.1%
29.5%
P2
43.1%
27.2%
P3
40.1%
37.1%
Final 5 min
38.6%
27.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.2%
Eklund
28.0%▬
29.0%
31.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2024 | 3 | 10:32 | Neutral | William Eklund |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 3 | 05:37 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 2 | 04:45 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 2 | 01:26 | Defensive | William Eklund |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 1 | 01:18 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |