Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (38.8% vs 38.6%). Marchand wins 36.4% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marchand 40.3% vs Zegras 39.2% (+0.2%)
Offensive zone
Marchand 50.6%
Defensive zone
Zegras 54.1%
Neutral zone
Marchand 50.5%
Result
Trevor Zegras favored at 51.0%
49.0%
51.0%
Marchand
Zegras
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marchand
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
36.6% (473)
38.6% (1,669)
-2.0%
Power Play
49.3% (146)
38.5% (148)
+10.8%
Penalty Kill
31.8% (66)
28.6% (7)
+3.2%
On power play, Marchand has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Marchand is 36.4% vs left-shot opponents (467).
Marchand shoots left. Zegras is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,228).
Home / Away
Marchand
Zegras
Home
39.9% (363)
39.9% (882)
Away
37.6% (322)
37.4% (942)
By Period
Marchand
Zegras
P1
41.3%
40.2%
P2
35.0%
38.0%
P3
39.2%
37.7%
OT
37.5%
31.6%
Final 5 min
37.9%
40.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marchand
42.0%▲
37.0%
38.8%
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
38.6%