Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +14.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 55.9% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 58.7% vs Johnson 45.7% (+14.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 92.4%
Defensive zone
Tavares 82.1%
Neutral zone
Tavares 89.9%
Result
John Tavares favored at 88.3%
88.3%
11.7%
Tavares
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
0
(5 meetings)
5
0
Tavares
Johnson
Last 5: Tavares 5-0 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
0
Tavares
Johnson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
Johnson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
59.2% (1,035)
44.6% (285)
+14.6%
Power Play
60.0% (310)
46.7% (60)
+13.3%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
16.7% (6)
+26.2%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +26.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Tavares is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (487).
Tavares shoots left. Johnson is 43.6% vs left-shot opponents (273).
Home / Away
Tavares
Johnson
Home
57.5% (668)
50.8% (179)
Away
61.1% (684)
37.8% (172)
By Period
Tavares
Johnson
P1
58.0%
41.3%
P2
60.1%
41.8%
P3
61.0%
49.6%
OT
27.8%
100.0%
Final 5 min
60.7%
43.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
59.3%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24, 2023 | 2 | 14:23 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 16, 2023 | 3 | 17:03 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 16, 2023 | 3 | 16:55 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 16, 2023 | 3 | 00:44 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 16, 2023 | 2 | 01:16 | Defensive | John Tavares |