Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Eller on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 52.0% vs Johnson 45.7% (+7.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Eller 57.5%
Defensive zone
Eller 93.9%
Neutral zone
Eller 81.9%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 84.2%
84.2%
15.8%
Eller
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Eller
Johnson
Last 5: Eller 4-1 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
0
1
Eller
Johnson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
3
0
Eller
Johnson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Eller
1
0
Eller
Johnson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
52.8% (742)
44.6% (285)
+8.2%
Power Play
67.6% (34)
46.7% (60)
+20.9%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (156)
16.7% (6)
+29.5%
On penalty kill, Eller has a +29.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Eller is 51.4% vs right-shot opponents (333).
Eller shoots left. Johnson is 43.6% vs left-shot opponents (273).
Home / Away
Eller
Johnson
Home
54.5% (448)
50.8% (179)
Away
50.2% (484)
37.8% (172)
By Period
Eller
Johnson
P1
52.8%
41.3%
P2
50.9%
41.8%
P3
53.4%
49.6%
OT
50.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
55.6%
43.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
52.3%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2024 | 3 | 18:57 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 3 | 18:40 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 2 | 15:36 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 10, 2023 | 3 | 18:33 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Oct 10, 2023 | 2 | 17:07 | Defensive | Lars Eller |