Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +8.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Seguin on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Stepan wins 43.4% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 47.0% vs Seguin 55.0% (-8.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 73.1%
Defensive zone
Stepan 65.4%
Neutral zone
Stepan 67.7%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 68.6%
68.6%
31.4%
Stepan
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Stepan
Seguin
Last 6: Stepan 1-5 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
0
1
Stepan
Seguin
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Seguin
1
4
Stepan
Seguin
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
46.6% (889)
55.9% (789)
-9.3%
Power Play
46.9% (113)
52.1% (48)
-5.2%
Penalty Kill
47.5% (101)
44.4% (9)
+3.1%
On even strength, Seguin has a +9.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Stepan is 43.4% vs right-shot opponents (318).
Stepan shoots right. Seguin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (251).
Home / Away
Stepan
Seguin
Home
47.7% (555)
57.3% (382)
Away
45.6% (548)
54.1% (464)
By Period
Stepan
Seguin
P1
46.4%
55.1%
P2
45.7%
57.5%
P3
48.5%
53.7%
OT
35.3%
61.1%
Final 5 min
46.5%
56.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.7%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
55.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2016 | 3 | 09:13 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Feb 27, 2016 | 2 | 06:02 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Feb 27, 2016 | 2 | 02:20 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Feb 27, 2016 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Feb 27, 2016 | 1 | 09:23 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 27, 2016 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |