Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Lorentz on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Lorentz wins 45.8% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lorentz 48.2% vs Seguin 54.2% (-6.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Seguin 84.9%
Defensive zone
Seguin 58.0%
Neutral zone
Seguin 66.5%
Result
Tyler Seguin favored at 67.9%
32.1%
67.9%
Lorentz
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Lorentz
Seguin
Last 8: Lorentz 6-2 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Lorentz
Seguin
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lorentz
3
0
Lorentz
Seguin
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lorentz
2
1
Lorentz
Seguin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lorentz
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (497)
55.0% (713)
-6.7%
Power Play
63.6% (11)
56.7% (104)
+6.9%
Penalty Kill
38.5% (39)
47.2% (53)
-8.7%
On penalty kill, Seguin has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Lorentz is 45.8% vs right-shot opponents (203).
Lorentz shoots left. Seguin is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Lorentz
Seguin
Home
50.4% (238)
56.2% (443)
Away
46.0% (309)
53.2% (427)
By Period
Lorentz
Seguin
P1
49.1%
54.2%
P2
48.0%
52.9%
P3
47.2%
57.1%
OT
0.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
47.4%
57.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
47.9%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2023 | 2 | 04:10 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Jan 18, 2023 | 2 | 03:54 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 2 | 09:03 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 2 | 02:30 | Defensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 3 | 07:06 | Defensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 2 | 12:36 | Defensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 1 | 12:18 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 1 | 08:43 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |