Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Seguin on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 10 meetings). Seguin wins 53.4% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Seguin 53.6% vs Gourde 48.2% (+5.4%)
H2H factor
Seguin leads 25-17 in 42 meetings
Offensive zone
Seguin 83.4%
Defensive zone
Seguin 73.3%
Neutral zone
Seguin 74.1%
Result
Tyler Seguin favored at 76.3%
76.3%
23.7%
Seguin
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
25
-
17
(42 meetings)
25
17
Seguin
Gourde
Last 10: Seguin 7-3 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
5
6
Seguin
Gourde
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
8
2
Seguin
Gourde
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Seguin
12
9
Seguin
Gourde
21 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Seguin
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (8,071)
48.4% (4,954)
+5.3%
Power Play
55.9% (810)
57.4% (376)
-1.5%
Penalty Kill
49.3% (762)
39.9% (554)
+9.4%
On penalty kill, Seguin has a +9.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Seguin is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (6,798).
Seguin shoots right. Gourde is 46.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,937).
Home / Away
Seguin
Gourde
Home
55.9% (4,759)
49.3% (2,915)
Away
51.4% (4,885)
47.2% (2,969)
By Period
Seguin
Gourde
P1
52.8%
49.9%
P2
53.3%
47.4%
P3
54.7%
47.5%
OT
54.7%
37.0%
Final 5 min
54.3%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
53.6%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 02:48 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 15:02 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 13, 2024 | 2 | 13:44 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 13, 2024 | 1 | 16:30 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 13, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 2 | 09:51 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 1 | 03:18 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 13:28 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 1 | 19:11 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 1 | 03:12 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 1 | 02:54 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Apr 23, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Apr 23, 2022 | 2 | 02:50 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Apr 23, 2022 | 1 | 14:06 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Apr 23, 2022 | 1 | 10:23 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Apr 23, 2022 | 1 | 07:31 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Apr 23, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |