Scouting Report
Chris Tierney holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Tierney wins 46.0% vs right-shot opponents — Toffoli shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tierney 46.2% vs Toffoli 46.1% (+6.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toffoli 76.6%
Defensive zone
Tierney 79.3%
Neutral zone
Toffoli 53.0%
Result
Chris Tierney favored at 50.5%
50.5%
49.5%
Tierney
Toffoli
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Tierney
Toffoli
Last 5: Tierney 2-3 Toffoli
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toffoli
0
2
Tierney
Toffoli
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tierney
2
0
Tierney
Toffoli
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toffoli
0
1
Tierney
Toffoli
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tierney
Toffoli
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (487)
40.4% (47)
+6.0%
Power Play
77.8% (9)
33.3% (6)
+44.5%
Penalty Kill
38.3% (94)
0.0% (1)
+38.3%
On power play, Tierney has a +44.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toffoli shoots right. Tierney is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (237).
Tierney shoots left. Toffoli is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (35).
Home / Away
Tierney
Toffoli
Home
49.3% (286)
48.0% (25)
Away
42.1% (304)
31.0% (29)
By Period
Tierney
Toffoli
P1
48.5%
36.4%
P2
41.1%
50.0%
P3
48.1%
33.3%
Final 5 min
36.2%
33.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tierney
60.0%▲
56.5%
45.6%
Toffoli
38.0%▼
42.5%
38.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2021 | 2 | 08:46 | Offensive | Tyler Toffoli |
| Feb 23, 2021 | 3 | 19:31 | Defensive | Chris Tierney |
| Feb 6, 2021 | 1 | 16:21 | Offensive | Tyler Toffoli |
| Feb 4, 2021 | 2 | 16:07 | Neutral | Tyler Toffoli |
| Feb 4, 2021 | 1 | 14:25 | Defensive | Chris Tierney |