Scouting Report
Ryan Carpenter holds a +11.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Jost on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carpenter 51.2% vs Jost 42.2% (+11.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jost 71.8%
Defensive zone
Jost 77.5%
Neutral zone
Jost 75.3%
Result
Tyson Jost favored at 76.8%
23.2%
76.8%
Carpenter
Jost
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Carpenter
Jost
Last 6: Carpenter 1-5 Jost
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jost
1
3
Carpenter
Jost
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Jost
0
2
Carpenter
Jost
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carpenter
Jost
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (299)
40.8% (314)
+12.4%
Power Play
33.3% (3)
37.5% (8)
-4.2%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (86)
39.4% (104)
+7.1%
On even strength, Carpenter has a +12.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jost shoots left. Carpenter is 49.3% vs left-shot opponents (284).
Carpenter shoots right. Jost is 36.0% vs right-shot opponents (172).
Home / Away
Carpenter
Jost
Home
54.6% (207)
42.8% (264)
Away
48.1% (181)
36.4% (162)
By Period
Carpenter
Jost
P1
52.3%
37.4%
P2
51.5%
40.5%
P3
50.8%
43.3%
Final 5 min
44.2%
43.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
51.5%
Jost
38.0%▼
41.5%
40.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 28, 2022 | 3 | 11:11 | Defensive | Tyson Jost |
| Apr 28, 2022 | 2 | 06:02 | Neutral | Tyson Jost |
| Apr 28, 2022 | 1 | 05:34 | Defensive | Tyson Jost |
| Apr 28, 2022 | 1 | 05:26 | Defensive | Tyson Jost |
| Mar 19, 2022 | 1 | 02:26 | Neutral | Tyson Jost |
| Mar 19, 2022 | 1 | 02:15 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |