Nathan MacKinnon vs Vincent Trocheck
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Vincent Trocheck holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Trocheck on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings). MacKinnon wins 45.6% vs right-shot opponents — Trocheck shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.3% vs Trocheck 56.0% (-5.1%)
H2H factor
Trocheck leads 17-5 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 85.8%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 84.9%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 78.9%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 82.7%
82.7%
17.3%
MacKinnon
Trocheck
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
17
(22 meetings)
5
17
MacKinnon
Trocheck
Last 10: MacKinnon 1-9 Trocheck
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Trocheck
2
4
MacKinnon
Trocheck
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Trocheck
0
7
MacKinnon
Trocheck
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Trocheck
3
6
MacKinnon
Trocheck
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Trocheck
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (992)
57.8% (626)
-7.8%
Power Play
64.9% (148)
63.6% (151)
+1.3%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
44.0% (141)
-9.6%
On penalty kill, Trocheck has a +9.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Trocheck shoots right. MacKinnon is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (333).
MacKinnon shoots right. Trocheck is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (290).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Trocheck
Home
53.3% (591)
54.4% (390)
Away
49.6% (581)
58.3% (528)
By Period
MacKinnon
Trocheck
P1
49.9%
56.4%
P2
53.2%
58.7%
P3
50.8%
54.8%
OT
66.7%
57.1%
Final 5 min
56.1%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Trocheck
60.0%▲
57.0%
56.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 19:18 | Neutral | Vincent Trocheck |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Vincent Trocheck |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 10:29 | Defensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 17:53 | Offensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 17:34 | Defensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 12:50 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 03:34 | Neutral | Vincent Trocheck |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Vincent Trocheck |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 19:08 | Offensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 18:45 | Offensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 18:35 | Neutral | Vincent Trocheck |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 16:22 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 16:06 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 04:50 | Defensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 00:51 | Defensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 18:54 | Defensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 06:54 | Defensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 05:31 | Offensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Vincent Trocheck |