Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Karlsson on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 53.3% vs Karlsson 51.7% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Karlsson 54.7%
Defensive zone
Karlsson 55.7%
Neutral zone
Karlsson 54.5%
Result
William Karlsson favored at 55.2%
44.8%
55.2%
Pavelski
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Pavelski
Karlsson
Last 8: Pavelski 3-5 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
1
3
Pavelski
Karlsson
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Pavelski
Karlsson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (474)
52.9% (719)
+1.5%
Power Play
51.9% (104)
53.5% (101)
-1.6%
Penalty Kill
52.7% (74)
45.2% (126)
+7.5%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +7.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Pavelski is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (493).
Pavelski shoots right. Karlsson is 58.0% vs right-shot opponents (331).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Karlsson
Home
54.3% (313)
54.1% (547)
Away
53.4% (339)
48.9% (399)
By Period
Pavelski
Karlsson
P1
51.0%
49.5%
P2
51.9%
53.2%
P3
58.1%
52.3%
OT
62.5%
61.9%
Final 5 min
51.9%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.8%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2019 | 3 | 10:54 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 13, 2019 | 2 | 19:28 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Dec 13, 2019 | 2 | 17:47 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 13, 2019 | 1 | 03:47 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Nov 25, 2019 | 3 | 17:50 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 25, 2019 | 3 | 15:52 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Nov 25, 2019 | 2 | 11:43 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Nov 25, 2019 | 2 | 04:35 | Offensive | William Karlsson |