Scouting Report
Barrett Hayton holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 52.4% vs Johnston 48.5% (+4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayton 62.2%
Defensive zone
Hayton 61.9%
Neutral zone
Hayton 63.0%
Result
Barrett Hayton favored at 62.2%
62.2%
37.8%
Hayton
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Hayton
Johnston
Last 5: Hayton 4-1 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Hayton
Johnston
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
2
0
Hayton
Johnston
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayton
1
0
Hayton
Johnston
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (646)
47.8% (623)
+4.7%
Power Play
56.8% (111)
50.8% (63)
+6.0%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (19)
51.4% (35)
-14.6%
On penalty kill, Johnston has a +14.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Hayton is 48.7% vs right-shot opponents (302).
Hayton shoots left. Johnston is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (535).
Home / Away
Hayton
Johnston
Home
56.9% (432)
47.6% (351)
Away
47.4% (344)
48.9% (370)
By Period
Hayton
Johnston
P1
53.1%
49.6%
P2
50.3%
47.3%
P3
55.4%
48.0%
OT
25.0%
46.7%
Final 5 min
59.5%
48.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
52.7%
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 15:02 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 12:11 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 18:47 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 03:25 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 10:38 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |