Scouting Report
Nick Foligno holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnston on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Foligno wins 44.4% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Foligno 49.8% vs Johnston 48.5% (+1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johnston 66.3%
Defensive zone
Johnston 55.8%
Neutral zone
Johnston 60.9%
Result
Wyatt Johnston favored at 66.3%
33.7%
66.3%
Foligno
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Foligno
Johnston
Last 5: Foligno 1-4 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
1
4
Foligno
Johnston
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Foligno
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (261)
47.8% (623)
+1.2%
Power Play
57.1% (42)
50.8% (63)
+6.3%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (51)
51.4% (35)
-4.3%
On power play, Foligno has a +6.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Foligno is 44.4% vs right-shot opponents (162).
Foligno shoots left. Johnston is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (535).
Home / Away
Foligno
Johnston
Home
48.9% (178)
47.6% (351)
Away
50.6% (176)
48.9% (370)
By Period
Foligno
Johnston
P1
40.4%
49.6%
P2
55.8%
47.3%
P3
51.2%
48.0%
OT
33.3%
46.7%
Final 5 min
53.8%
48.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 15:53 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 12:23 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 1 | 17:37 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 1 | 17:32 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 1 | 03:22 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |