Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 53.0% vs Gourde 49.7% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 87.6%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 66.0%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 75.3%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 74.2%
74.2%
25.8%
Pavelski
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Pavelski
Gourde
Last 6: Pavelski 5-1 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
1
Pavelski
Gourde
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
0
Pavelski
Gourde
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
0
Pavelski
Gourde
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (560)
49.1% (847)
+3.2%
Power Play
57.5% (113)
79.5% (44)
-22.0%
Penalty Kill
62.5% (16)
39.5% (81)
+23.0%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +23.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Pavelski is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (513).
Pavelski shoots right. Gourde is 48.9% vs right-shot opponents (321).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Gourde
Home
54.2% (360)
50.1% (491)
Away
52.6% (329)
49.3% (481)
By Period
Pavelski
Gourde
P1
54.5%
54.7%
P2
56.7%
45.0%
P3
50.8%
49.4%
OT
30.8%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.4%
46.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.4%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 2 | 03:57 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 2 | 03:45 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 3 | 16:35 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 2 | 01:31 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 1 | 04:40 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |