Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Gourde on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Seguin wins 56.7% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Seguin 51.1% vs Gourde 48.9% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Seguin 51.8%
Defensive zone
Seguin 52.1%
Neutral zone
Gourde 55.8%
Result
Yanni Gourde favored at 51.0%
49.0%
51.0%
Seguin
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Seguin
Gourde
Last 8: Seguin 5-3 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
1
2
Seguin
Gourde
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
2
0
Seguin
Gourde
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Seguin
2
1
Seguin
Gourde
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Seguin
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
62.1% (29)
49.0% (557)
+13.1%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
29.2% (48)
-12.5%
On even strength, Seguin has a +13.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Seguin is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (30).
Seguin shoots right. Gourde is 45.5% vs right-shot opponents (178).
By Period
Seguin
Gourde
P1
57.1%
54.0%
P2
54.5%
44.6%
P3
50.0%
48.4%
Final 5 min
63.6%
55.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
54.3%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2021 | 3 | 05:52 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| May 7, 2021 | 2 | 03:08 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| May 7, 2021 | 1 | 15:25 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| May 7, 2021 | 1 | 08:26 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| May 7, 2021 | 1 | 06:24 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| May 5, 2021 | 2 | 14:42 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| May 5, 2021 | 2 | 11:33 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| May 5, 2021 | 2 | 08:29 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |