Scouting Report
Tyler Seguin holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Seguin on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Seguin wins 55.0% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Seguin 55.4% vs Gourde 48.0% (+8.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Seguin 79.8%
Defensive zone
Seguin 70.8%
Neutral zone
Seguin 83.7%
Result
Tyler Seguin favored at 76.5%
76.5%
23.5%
Seguin
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Seguin
Gourde
Last 7: Seguin 6-1 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
2
1
Seguin
Gourde
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
3
0
Seguin
Gourde
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Seguin
1
0
Seguin
Gourde
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Seguin
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
56.9% (478)
48.0% (914)
+8.9%
Power Play
57.4% (54)
54.2% (48)
+3.2%
Penalty Kill
51.3% (76)
43.9% (123)
+7.4%
On even strength, Seguin has a +8.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Seguin is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (473).
Seguin shoots right. Gourde is 47.7% vs right-shot opponents (321).
Home / Away
Seguin
Gourde
Home
57.4% (317)
50.2% (512)
Away
55.0% (291)
45.7% (573)
By Period
Seguin
Gourde
P1
50.3%
50.0%
P2
60.4%
45.3%
P3
58.0%
48.6%
OT
57.1%
20.0%
Final 5 min
57.5%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
56.3%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2024 | 2 | 09:51 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 1 | 03:18 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 13:28 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 1 | 19:11 | Defensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 1 | 03:12 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 18, 2023 | 1 | 02:54 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |