Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +9.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Hayes wins 54.4% vs left-shot opponents — Girgensons shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 50.2% vs Girgensons 46.2% (+9.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 70.7%
Defensive zone
Hayes 50.7%
Neutral zone
Hayes 58.3%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 65.8%
65.8%
34.2%
Hayes
Girgensons
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
0
(5 meetings)
5
0
Hayes
Girgensons
Last 5: Hayes 5-0 Girgensons
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
3
0
Hayes
Girgensons
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
2
0
Hayes
Girgensons
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Girgensons
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (672)
45.7% (46)
+5.6%
Penalty Kill
40.8% (76)
33.3% (27)
+7.5%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +7.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Girgensons shoots left. Hayes is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (526).
Hayes shoots left. Girgensons is 36.0% vs left-shot opponents (50).
Home / Away
Hayes
Girgensons
Home
52.0% (404)
51.6% (31)
Away
48.6% (422)
33.3% (42)
By Period
Hayes
Girgensons
P1
50.7%
50.0%
P2
50.2%
29.6%
P3
49.8%
46.7%
Final 5 min
52.9%
42.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
50.2%
Girgensons
58.0%▲
44.0%
41.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19, 2019 | 3 | 14:39 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 19, 2019 | 2 | 18:36 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 19, 2019 | 2 | 09:22 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 19, 2019 | 2 | 06:13 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 19, 2019 | 1 | 16:32 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |