Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +11.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings). Fantilli wins 42.2% vs right-shot opponents — Evans shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 42.0% vs Evans 52.6% (-11.7%)
H2H factor
Evans leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Fantilli 95.8%
Defensive zone
Fantilli 68.5%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 82.0%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 73.9%
73.9%
26.1%
Fantilli
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
8
(10 meetings)
2
8
Fantilli
Evans
Last 10: Fantilli 2-8 Evans
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
1
0
Fantilli
Evans
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
0
7
Fantilli
Evans
7 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Fantilli
Evans
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
40.7% (934)
54.4% (824)
-13.7%
Power Play
52.1% (73)
66.7% (9)
-14.6%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (12)
48.1% (289)
-31.4%
On penalty kill, Evans has a +31.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. Fantilli is 42.2% vs right-shot opponents (332).
Fantilli shoots left. Evans is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (838).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Evans
Home
44.1% (488)
55.1% (541)
Away
38.6% (531)
50.8% (581)
By Period
Fantilli
Evans
P1
42.0%
51.8%
P2
43.0%
53.3%
P3
39.3%
53.8%
OT
11.1%
38.5%
Final 5 min
38.3%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
41.2%
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 16:14 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 02:05 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 2 | 14:04 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 1 | 04:21 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 3 | 11:22 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 2 | 07:42 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 2 | 07:33 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 2 | 02:13 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 2 | 02:03 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 1 | 10:33 | Defensive | Jake Evans |