Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (90% H2H, 10 meetings). Fantilli wins 46.7% vs right-shot opponents — Evans shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 45.4% vs Evans 52.2% (-7.0%)
H2H factor
Evans leads 11-6 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Fantilli 92.1%
Defensive zone
Evans 62.2%
Neutral zone
Fantilli 74.7%
Result
Adam Fantilli favored at 55.1%
55.1%
44.9%
Fantilli
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
11
(17 meetings)
6
11
Fantilli
Evans
Last 10: Fantilli 4-6 Evans
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
2
0
Fantilli
Evans
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
9
Fantilli
Evans
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Fantilli
3
2
Fantilli
Evans
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (2,134)
53.8% (3,695)
-9.1%
Power Play
52.0% (204)
60.0% (70)
-8.0%
Penalty Kill
32.0% (25)
47.1% (1,222)
-15.1%
On penalty kill, Evans has a +15.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. Fantilli is 46.7% vs right-shot opponents (794).
Fantilli shoots left. Evans is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (3,695).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Evans
Home
47.3% (1,178)
53.4% (2,593)
Away
43.0% (1,185)
51.0% (2,394)
By Period
Fantilli
Evans
P1
44.0%
54.0%
P2
46.2%
50.9%
P3
45.9%
52.0%
OT
24.1%
46.5%
Final 5 min
43.9%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
45.2%
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2025 | 3 | 18:41 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 08:53 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 08:44 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 04:47 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 16:14 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 02:05 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 2 | 14:04 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 1 | 04:21 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 3 | 11:22 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 2 | 07:42 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 2 | 07:33 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 2 | 02:13 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 2 | 02:03 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 1 | 10:33 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 29, 2023 | 1 | 12:38 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 2 | 11:44 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 1 | 05:56 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |