Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Fantilli on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Fantilli wins 53.9% vs right-shot opponents — Evans shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 50.0% vs Evans 55.4% (-6.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 75.5%
Defensive zone
Evans 92.7%
Neutral zone
Evans 63.9%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 71.1%
28.9%
71.1%
Fantilli
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Fantilli
Evans
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
1
0
Fantilli
Evans
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Fantilli
2
1
Fantilli
Evans
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (842)
56.2% (477)
-6.6%
Power Play
52.5% (99)
70.0% (10)
-17.5%
Penalty Kill
54.5% (11)
55.4% (204)
-0.9%
On power play, Evans has a +17.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. Fantilli is 53.9% vs right-shot opponents (330).
Fantilli shoots left. Evans is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (516).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Evans
Home
50.8% (472)
55.3% (374)
Away
49.2% (480)
57.1% (317)
By Period
Fantilli
Evans
P1
47.8%
58.5%
P2
52.7%
55.7%
P3
50.0%
53.9%
OT
30.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
51.1%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
50.0%
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
56.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2025 | 3 | 18:41 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 08:53 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 08:44 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 04:47 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |