Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Fantilli on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Fantilli wins 53.1% vs right-shot opponents — Evans shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 50.6% vs Evans 53.9% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Fantilli 76.3%
Defensive zone
Evans 89.6%
Neutral zone
Evans 56.7%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 64.9%
35.1%
64.9%
Fantilli
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Fantilli
Evans
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
1
0
Fantilli
Evans
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Fantilli
2
1
Fantilli
Evans
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (638)
53.6% (349)
-3.6%
Power Play
56.9% (58)
70.0% (10)
-13.1%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (10)
55.9% (161)
+4.1%
On power play, Evans has a +13.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. Fantilli is 53.1% vs right-shot opponents (241).
Fantilli shoots left. Evans is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (386).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Evans
Home
53.0% (334)
54.1% (290)
Away
48.7% (372)
55.2% (230)
By Period
Fantilli
Evans
P1
48.7%
60.1%
P2
53.9%
53.5%
P3
49.8%
50.3%
OT
28.6%
33.3%
Final 5 min
54.1%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
58.0%▲
51.0%
50.7%
Evans
54.0%▼
57.0%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2025 | 3 | 18:41 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 08:53 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 08:44 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 04:47 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |